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not quite not WW3
All during January and the first three weeks of February, we kept seeing news stories about how Putin was poised to invade Ukraine. I was fairly early convinced to "this is for real"; it seemed implausible that Putin would move all those troops and then have demands (NATO out of Poland) that were impossible to meet. Surprisingly many people thought this was a bluff, or believed Putin when he claimed "exercises are over, troops pulling out."
I had the sense the Russian goals were maximalist; too many troops spread out all along the border and no plausible strategy for limited gains. I had been saying to anybody who would listen "this is nuts, Ukraine is a big place, even 200k Russian troops aren't enough; how can they protect their supply lines or occupy the country?" But I and most people were imagining this in terms of occupation and insurgency. I think I'd have given 25% chance of them winning, 25% chance fighting to a near-draw, 25% successful insurgency, and 25% occupation by Russia.
On Monday the 21st, Putin "recognized" the Donbas states and started moving in troops. He gave a speech that spooked everybody, to the effect of "what a great shame it was that the Russian empire broke up." And this was spooky because it implied that the Baltic states and Finland were as much at risk as Ukraine. There were a few days of tense diplomacy. Twitter was increasingly agitated; Wednesday night, Sophie and I went out to eat with the kids and were glued to our phones. The buzz was "tonight's the night, around 4am." And sure enough, shortly after 4am Moscow time (9pm here) the missiles started falling in Ukraine. It was eerily predictable.
The next day, I was not very productive at work. It started to become clear that things were not going all right for the Russians; we had several reports of paratroop landings being beaten off; reports of Russian planes shot down, etc.
It's now Sunday. Much of this is now for the history books. The Ukrainians have been fighting ferociously; the western world has lined up behind fairly harsh sanctions on Russia, and impressive commitments of arms to Ukraine. At this point I think it's more likely than not that the Ukrainian government is still there at the end of the war; they have a good chance of straight-up winning. I think more like 1/3 chance of straight-up victory and 1/3 chance of a negotiated settlement where they keep most of their territory and sovereignty. At most 1/3 of being bludgeoned into surrender by Russian atrocities or firepower.
[deliberately not locked]
I had the sense the Russian goals were maximalist; too many troops spread out all along the border and no plausible strategy for limited gains. I had been saying to anybody who would listen "this is nuts, Ukraine is a big place, even 200k Russian troops aren't enough; how can they protect their supply lines or occupy the country?" But I and most people were imagining this in terms of occupation and insurgency. I think I'd have given 25% chance of them winning, 25% chance fighting to a near-draw, 25% successful insurgency, and 25% occupation by Russia.
On Monday the 21st, Putin "recognized" the Donbas states and started moving in troops. He gave a speech that spooked everybody, to the effect of "what a great shame it was that the Russian empire broke up." And this was spooky because it implied that the Baltic states and Finland were as much at risk as Ukraine. There were a few days of tense diplomacy. Twitter was increasingly agitated; Wednesday night, Sophie and I went out to eat with the kids and were glued to our phones. The buzz was "tonight's the night, around 4am." And sure enough, shortly after 4am Moscow time (9pm here) the missiles started falling in Ukraine. It was eerily predictable.
The next day, I was not very productive at work. It started to become clear that things were not going all right for the Russians; we had several reports of paratroop landings being beaten off; reports of Russian planes shot down, etc.
It's now Sunday. Much of this is now for the history books. The Ukrainians have been fighting ferociously; the western world has lined up behind fairly harsh sanctions on Russia, and impressive commitments of arms to Ukraine. At this point I think it's more likely than not that the Ukrainian government is still there at the end of the war; they have a good chance of straight-up winning. I think more like 1/3 chance of straight-up victory and 1/3 chance of a negotiated settlement where they keep most of their territory and sovereignty. At most 1/3 of being bludgeoned into surrender by Russian atrocities or firepower.
[deliberately not locked]